Is Russia’s evacuation of navy ships from Syria a sign of declining influence in the Middle East?

Tartus naval base, Syria.

Asaad and his army, are left more and more in the lurch by his ersatz “friends.” This has allowed the Syrian rebels of the HTS to take Aleppo in only three short days.

Just South along the coast from Khmeimim is the Russian naval base of Tartus, another location critical to Russian interests in the Middle-East (see map below). If the Russian ships were caught at the base they would be under significant risk of destruction. Thus, it is only prudent for these Russian ships to evacuate before they are caught flat-footed.

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For quite some time, the Syrian Army has held sway over Syria. But the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, and between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel, has meant Assad’s regime experiences less and less support. Further, Russian support for Syria has also declined while assets are moved to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

How long the Russian air base at Khmeimim and the naval base of Tartus may continue to function is unknown. If the Syrian army cannot organize a counter-attack quickly, Russia may soon lose its most significant presence in Syria, and the entire Middle-East.

At present, it means Russia’s naval base at Tartus is threatened by Syrian rebels (the HTS—Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), who have taken Aleppo, Syria in a lightning strike. They are now advancing to within 21 miles (35km) from the Russian airbase at Khmeimim. A base vital for Russian logistical and military support for the Assad regime.

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